Middle Tennessee — 2026 schedule & results record 4-3 · model's picks 4-3 so far
Proj rating -13.7 · SOS -10.0 · Mean wins 5.1 · Picked 4-8 · Vegas 3.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | Murray State | home | W 38–14 | -22.5 ✓ | +17.4 | 85% | W ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Marshall | away | L 26–28 | +12.25 ✓ | -13.8 | 21% | L ✓ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Nevada | home | W 27–20 | +3.75 ✓ | -0.8 | 48% | L ✗ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Jacksonville State | away | L 13–23 | +7 ✗ | -7.9 | 32% | L ✓ | |
| 5 | Sat 10/03 | Kansas | away | L 0–55 | +21 ✗ | -18.4 | 14% | L ✓ | |
| 7 | Tue 10/13 | Delaware | home | W 33–30 | +1.25 ✓ | -0.6 | 49% | L ✗ |
Delaware -2.5 · LOSS -20 |
| 8 | Tue 10/20 | Florida International | away | W 26–23 | +10.25 ✓ | -8.6 | 31% | L ✗ |
Florida International -10 · LOSS -20 |
| 9 | Wed 10/28 | Kennesaw State | home | — | -2.5 | +2.0 | 54% | W | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | Western Kentucky | home | — | — | -9.8 | 27% | L | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | Liberty | away | — | — | -8.1 | 32% | L | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Sam Houston | away | — | — | +2.1 | 55% | W | |
| 13 | Sat 11/28 | New Mexico State | home | — | — | +3.6 | 58% | W |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.